Topography modulates climate sensitivity of multidecadal trends of holm oak decline.

Forest decline events have increased worldwide over the last decades being holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) one of the tree species with the most worrying trends across Europe. Since this is one of the tree species with the southernmost distribution within the European continent, its vulnerability to climate change is a phenomenon of enormous ecological importance. Previous research identified drought and soil pathogens as the main causes behind holm oak decline. However, despite tree health loss is a multifactorial phenomenon where abiotic and biotic factors interact in time and space, there are some abiotic factors whose influence has been commonly overlooked. Here, we evaluate how land use (forests versus savannas), topography, and climate extremes jointly determine the spatiotemporal patterns of holm oak defoliation trends over almost three decades (1987-2014) in Spain, where holm oak represents the 25% of the national forested area. We found an increasing defoliation trend in 119 out of the total 134 holm oak plots evaluated, being this defoliation trend significantly higher in forests compared with savannas. Moreover, we have detected that the interaction between topography (which covariates with the land use) and summer precipitation anomalies explains trends of holm oak decline across the Mediterranean region. While a higher occurrence of dry summers increases defoliation trends in steeper terrains where forests dominate, an inverse relationship was found in flatter terrains where savannas are mainly located. These opposite relationships suggest different causal mechanisms behind decline. Whereas hydric stress is likely to occur in steeper terrains where soil water holding capacity is limited, soil waterlogging usually occurs in flatter terrains what increases tree vulnerability to soil pathogens. Our results contribute to the growing evidence of the influence of local topography on forest resilience and could assist in the identification of potential tree decline hotspots and its main causes over the Mediterranean region.

Holm oak decline is determined by shifts in fine root phenotypic plasticity in response to belowground stress.

Climate change and pathogen outbreaks are the two major causes of decline in Mediterranean holm oak trees (Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.). Crown-level changes in response to these stressful conditions have been widely documented but the responses of the root systems remain unexplored. The effects of environmental stress over roots and its potential role during the declining process need to be evaluated. We aimed to study how key morphological and architectural root parameters and nonstructural carbohydrates of roots are affected along a holm oak health gradient (i.e. within healthy, susceptible and declining trees). Holm oaks with different health statuses had different soil resource-uptake strategies. While healthy and susceptible trees showed a conservative resource-uptake strategy independently of soil nutrient availability, declining trees optimized soil resource acquisition by increasing the phenotypic plasticity of their fine root system. This increase in fine root phenotypic plasticity in declining holm oaks represents an energy-consuming strategy promoted to cope with the stress and at the expense of foliage maintenance. Our study describes a potential feedback loop resulting from strong unprecedented belowground stress that ultimately may lead to poor adaptation and tree death in the Spanish dehesa.

Tree growth response to drought partially explains regional-scale growth and mortality patterns in Iberian forests.

Tree-ring data has been widely used to inform about tree growth responses to drought at the individual scale, but less is known about how tree growth sensitivity to drought scales up driving changes in forest dynamics. Here, we related tree-ring growth chronologies and stand-level forest changes in basal area from two independent data sets to test if tree-ring responses to drought match stand forest dynamics (stand basal area growth, ingrowth, and mortality). We assessed if tree growth and changes in forest basal area covary as a function of spatial scale and tree taxa (gymnosperm or angiosperm). To this end, we compared a tree-ring network with stand data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory. We focused on the cumulative impact of drought on tree growth and demography in the period 1981-2005. Drought years were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their impacts on tree growth by quantifying tree-ring width reductions. We hypothesized that forests with greater drought impacts on tree growth will also show reduced stand basal area growth and ingrowth and enhanced mortality. This is expected to occur in forests dominated by gymnosperms on drought-prone regions. Cumulative growth reductions during dry years were higher in forests dominated by gymnosperms and presented a greater magnitude and spatial autocorrelation than for angiosperms. Cumulative drought-induced tree growth reductions and changes in forest basal area were related, but initial stand density and basal area were the main factors driving changes in basal area. In drought-prone gymnosperm forests, we observed that sites with greater growth reductions had lower stand basal area growth and greater mortality. Consequently, stand basal area, forest growth, and ingrowth in regions with large drought impacts was significantly lower than in regions less impacted by drought. Tree growth sensitivity to drought can be used as a predictor of gymnosperm demographic rates in terms of stand basal area growth and ingrowth at regional scales, but further studies may try to disentangle how initial stand density modulates such relationships. Drought-induced growth reductions and their cumulative impacts have strong potential to be used as early-warning indicators of regional forest vulnerability.

Photoprotective compounds as early markers to predict holm oak crown defoliation in declining Mediterranean savannahs.

Dehesas, human-shaped savannah-like ecosystems, where the overstorey is mainly dominated by the evergreen holm oak (Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.), are classified as a global conservation priority. Despite being Q. ilex a species adapted to the harsh Mediterranean environmental conditions, recent decades have witnessed worrisome trends of climate-change-induced holm oak mortality. Holm oak decline is evidenced by tree vigour loss, gradual defoliation and ultimately, death. However, before losing leaves, trees undergo leaf-level physiological adjustments in response to stress that may represent a promising field to develop biochemical early markers of holm oak decline. This study explored holm oak photoprotective responses (pigments, tocopherols and photosynthetic performance) in 144 mature holm oak trees with different health statuses (i.e., crown defoliation percentages) from healthy to first-stage declining individuals. Our results indicate differential photochemical performance and photoprotective compounds concentration depending on the trees' health status. Declining trees showed higher energy dissipation yield, lower photochemical efficiency and enhanced photoprotective compounds. In the case of total violaxanthin cycle pigments (VAZ) and tocopherols, shifts in leaf contents were significant at very early stages of crown defoliation, even before visual symptoms of decline were evident, supporting the value of these biochemical compounds as early stress markers. Linear mixed-effects models results showed an acute response, both in the photosynthesis performance index and in the concentration of foliar tocopherols, during the onset of tree decline, whereas VAZ showed a more gradual response along the defoliation gradient of the crown. These results collectively demonstrate that once a certain threshold of leaf physiological damage is surpassed, that leaf cannot counteract oxidative stress and progressive loss of leaves occurs. Therefore, the use of both photosynthesis performance indexes and the leaf tocopherols concentration as early diagnostic tools might predict declining trends, facilitating the implementation of preventive measures to counteract crown defoliation.

Legacies of past forest management determine current responses to severe drought events of conifer species in the Romanian Carpathians.

Worldwide increases in droughts- and heat-waves-associated tree mortality events are destabilizing the future of many forests and the ecosystem services they provide. Along with climate, understanding the impact of the legacies of past forest management is key to better explain current responses of different tree species to climate change. We studied tree mortality events that peaked in 2012 affecting one native (silver fir; growing within its natural distribution range) and two introduced (black pine and Scots; growing outside their natural distribution range) conifer species from the Romanian Carpathians. The three conifers were compared in terms of mortality events, growth trends, growth resilience to severe drought events, climate-growth relationships, and regeneration patterns. The mortality rates of the three species were found to be associated with severe drought events. Nevertheless, the native silver fir seems to undergo a self-thinning process, while the future of the remaining living black pine and Scots pine trees is uncertain as they register significant negative growth trends. Overall, the native silver fir showed a higher resilience to severe drought events than the two introduced pine species. Furthermore, and unlike the native silver fir, black pine and Scots pine species do not successfully regenerate. A high diversity of native broadleaf species sprouts and develops instead under them suggesting that we might be witnessing a process of ecological succession, with broadleaves recovering their habitats. As native species seem to perform better in terms of resilience and regeneration than introduced species, the overall effect of the black pine and Scots pine mortality might be compensated. Legacies of past forest management should be taken into account in order to better understand current responses of different tree species to ongoing climate change.

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions.

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees' phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long-term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree-level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree-, site-, and drought-related factors and their interactions driving the tree-level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree-ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid-elevation and low productivity sites from 1980-1999 to 2000-2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree-level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long-term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.

Low growth resilience to drought is related to future mortality risk in trees.

Severe droughts have the potential to reduce forest productivity and trigger tree mortality. Most trees face several drought events during their life and therefore resilience to dry conditions may be crucial to long-term survival. We assessed how growth resilience to severe droughts, including its components resistance and recovery, is related to the ability to survive future droughts by using a tree-ring database of surviving and now-dead trees from 118 sites (22 species, >3,500 trees). We found that, across the variety of regions and species sampled, trees that died during water shortages were less resilient to previous non-lethal droughts, relative to coexisting surviving trees of the same species. In angiosperms, drought-related mortality risk is associated with lower resistance (low capacity to reduce impact of the initial drought), while it is related to reduced recovery (low capacity to attain pre-drought growth rates) in gymnosperms. The different resilience strategies in these two taxonomic groups open new avenues to improve our understanding and prediction of drought-induced mortality.

Habitat fragmentation is linked to cascading effects on soil functioning and CO2 emissions in Mediterranean holm-oak-forests.

We studied key mechanisms and drivers of soil functioning by analyzing soil respiration and enzymatic activity in Mediterranean holm oak forest fragments with different influence of the agricultural matrix. For this, structural equation models (SEM) were built including data on soil abiotic (moisture, temperature, organic matter, pH, nutrients), biotic (microbial biomass, bacterial and fungal richness), and tree-structure-related (basal area) as explanatory variables of soil enzymatic activity and respiration. Our results show that increased tree growth induced by forest fragmentation in scenarios of high agricultural matrix influence triggered a cascade of causal-effect relations, affecting soil functioning. On the one hand, soil enzymatic activity was strongly stimulated by the abiotic (changes in pH and microclimate) and biotic (microbial biomass) modifications of the soil environment arising from the increased tree size and subsequent soil organic matter accumulation. Soil CO2 emissions (soil respiration), which integrate releases from all the biological activity occurring in soils (autotrophic and heterotrophic components), were mainly affected by the abiotic (moisture, temperature) modifications of the soil environment caused by trees. These results, therefore, suggest that the increasing fragmentation of forests may profoundly impact the functioning of the plant-soil-microbial system, with important effects over soil CO2 emissions and nutrient cycling at the ecosystem level. Forest fragmentation is thus revealed as a key albeit neglected factor for accurate estimations of soil carbon dynamics under global change scenarios.

Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth.

Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality.

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1-100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.